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Weekly Fantasy Football Preview – Week 5

Jinx [jingks] noun 1.  a person, thing or influence supposed to bring bad luck.

Yup.  I did exactly what I should not have.  I started last weeks’ column talking about how on fire we have been here at Corner Pub Sports with all of our DFS picks through 3 weeks.  Even mentioned the J word, damned it and continued the bragging.

So then Week 4 happened. And while it was still a good  week in terms of DFS success, it was not at the break-neck pace we had established in the beginning of the season.  And I told you, my loyal readers, that since I was pointing out how right I was through 3 weeks, if I missed any calls in the future, I would own up to it.  Time to pay the piper.

While all of my calls at QB, RB and TE were right on point, I took it on the chin at the WR position.  Made the call for either San Diego WR in Benjamin or Williams, but was in love with Williams at his price and made him part of my triple stack of the week.  At some point in your life, you just have to accept that triple cheeseburgers aren’t that great for you.  While I am not at that stage yet,  Philip Rivers screwed me by leaning on the pride of the Toronto  Argonauts of the CFL in Dontrelle Inman, who finished Sunday with 7 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD, which ARE THE EXACT STATS I PREDICTED FOR WILLIAMS (go ahead, look up last weeks’ article).   Right team, right stats, right position.  Wrong name on the back of the jersey, which is all that really counts.

And then my 2nd WR call, Stefon Diggs.  It was Monday Night Football.  Against a depleted Giants secondary.  Gave a lot of cool intel about the injuries the Giants had, made a lot of cool references to The Warriors.  But I forgot about the Bradford.  Diggs did finish tied for the team lead in receptions, he was kept out of the end zone, which is where we needed him to be.  Bradford completed 5 passes to 3 different Vikings and completed at least 1 pass to NINE different players.  That is what Bradford does.  That is what Bradford has always done, and that is what Bradford will continue to do.

Oh, I didn’t call for Julio Jones, who had a game for the ages in being 1 of 6 players in the history of football to catch 300 yards.  So there you go…my DFS Mea Culpa.

Lets tackle Week 5…lock the gates…

WEEK 5 BYES: JACKSONVILLE, KANSAS CITY, NEW ORLEANS, SEATTLE

 

QUARTERBACKS

TOM BRADY ($7500) @CLE 1PM

Heeee’s baaaaacck. And he needs to be in no less than 90% of your lineups.  A lot of DFS players will probably be making a shake-off-the-rust-game argument for not having him in lineups, but I am not one of them.  Brady has literally only done 3 things the past month.

1. He played catch with Wes Welker

2.  He hung out with some college kids at Michigan

3. He slept with Gisele Bundchen.

Yeah there’s no rust there.  That is one rejuvenated man.  And now he gets to feast on the Browns.  Through 4 weeks, Cleveland is giving up on average 271 yards and 2.5 TDS per game. And that has been to the likes of Kirk Cousins, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill and Carson Wentz.  Brady comes back with a vengeance this week.  Poor Cleveland.

I’m pretty sure Belichick was okay with losing last week.  Takes the pressure off of Brady trying to run the table the rest of the season, and will make this beat down of biblical proportions against Cleveland all the more dramatic.  360 yards 3 TD (in 3 quarters)

 

ELI MANNING ($6000) @GB 8:30PM SNF

Their run game is non existent.  Green Bay leads the league is surrendering plays of 20+ yards.  Odell Beckham Jr is a squeaky wheel.  The squeaky wheel always gets the grease.  Vegas has the over/under at 48.  I am fairly certain that the Giants will be playing from behind most of the game, which will result in Manning having to throw the ball at least 45 times again.  This is going to be a high scoring affair and will be a fun one to watch until  the Giants are down 14 with 6 minutes to go and Manning throws a costly interception that seals the game and does his patented “Eli Shrug”.  It’s a discount rack price, and with so Cam and Carson nursing injuries and Matty Ice going to the Denvers’ version of Death Valley, not much to like out there this week.

 

RUNNING BACKS

 

JORDAN HOWARD ($5200) @IND 1PM

(photo via Yahoo.com)

The 5th round pick out of Indiana has been the subject of lots of whispers and speculative adds in season long leagues.  And then he got his chance last week, making his first start against the Lions.  He answered the bell and then some. He gained 111 yards on 23 carries and added 3 catches for 21 yards.  He started the season as the 3rd string back.  Injuries to Langford and Carey put him in the starting position.  I love me some running backs who also can catch passes.  Now he gets the Colts, who have given up at least 1 rushing TD in every game this season.  Howards’ price is going to continue to rise each week.  He is not a 3rd stringer any more.  95 yards 1 TD

 

LEGARRETTE BLOUNT ($5600) @CLE 1PM

A lot of so-called experts are calling for Blount to fall off a cliff now that Brady is back.  Yes, now that the Pats have an actual QB under center, we are heading back to the dreaded days of the New England RB carousel.  But none of that starts quite yet.  This one is actually a pretty easy game plan to forecast.  Yes, at some point in the next few weeks, everyone will be talking about James White, but slow your roll this week.  The Pats are going to be up early and they are going to be up a metric ton.  When they are up, it’s a Blount game.  This is officially the last week that you can forecast the Pats’ game plan with any degree of certainty.   Last week was the first week this season that Blount didn’t find the end zone.  That coupled with the return of Lord Brady will make Blounts’ ownership pretty pretty pretty low.  2 running backs in the $5000 range? I’m in. Because 2 cheap RBs = 2 expensive WRs. (that’s called a tease kids…) 110 yards 1 TD

 

WIDE RECEIVER

 

JORDY NELSON ($7900) vs NYG 8:30PM SNF

The last time we saw Mr. Nelson, he was lighting up Detroits’ secondary to the tune of 6 catches on 7 targets for 101 yards and 2 TDs.  IN THE FIRST HALF.  Green Bay was up sooo much that the passing game was non existent in the 2nd half.  The Giants secondary will probably be a little healthier than they were last week against the Vikings, but even at full health, this is not a secondary that I am scared of.  The Giants can be decent at stopping the run, I have yet to see any evidence that they can stop the pass.  The early bye had to help Nelson as he was slow coming back from the ACL injury that kept him out all of last year and this pre-season.  Again, I think this one is going to be fun to watch.  After this week, Green Bay will be every ones’ new favorite Super Bowl pick. The Rogers-Nelson stack this week is pretty tasty.

 

MIKE EVANS ($7500) @CAR 8:30PM MNF

If you have ever listened to the DFS podcast over on burntcoverage.com, you have heard me yell time and time again at people who chase last weeks’ stats.  Just because someone did something 7 days ago, it does not offer any reasonable hope that they will duplicate those numbers the following week.

So just to be clear, I am not chasing Mike Evans’ stats from last week, but I am chasing Julio Jones’ stats from last week.  We all know that Julio torched the young Panthers’ secondary for 300 yards on 12 catches.  I don’t expect Evans to come any close to those numbers.

But what i do know is that in 4 games, the Panthers have given up 8 passing touchdowns.  I know last week was the first game this season that Evans did not catch a touchdown.  I know that Evans has been targeted 50 (!!) times so far this season, for an average of 12.5 targets per game. I don’t know is Jameis Winston loves throwing to Mike Evans that much, or he just realizes that he has no one else to throw to.    Either way, his big game is going to happen very soon.  I’m thinking that it’s this week.  130 yards 2 TD

 

TIGHT END

 

ZACH ERTZ ($3500) @DET 1PM

Zachy boy has only played in 1 game this season, due to a horrific sounding injury in a displaced rib. Mmmm, ribs.  Apparently, ribs have an ability to gravitate back to their natural position when such displacements occur. Fascinating.  Draftkings has Ertz as the 12th most expensive TE this week.  That, boys and girls, is what you call a bargain.  This sounds like a terrible injury, but it is not a knee or an ankle or a hammy.  There was no rehab needed to get Ertz healthy again.  Just wait for the rib to do its’ thing, which it has apparently done.  Full steam ahead.  Wentz and Ertz (just sounds cool) seemed to be developing quite connection before he got hurt.  Detroit is god-awful against opposing tight ends, having given up 5 TDs to them in the last 4 games.  Don’t worry, I’ll do the math for you…that is 1.25 TDs per game.  Oh, and 2 of those TDs were to a tight end named Jack Doyle.  Who?  Exactly.  85 yard 1 TD

 

GREG OLSEN ($6300) vs. TB 8:30PM MNF

Jimmy’s long lost brother leads all tight ends in targets through 4 weeks, with 40.  Jordan Reed is 2nd with 35.  Another potential shootout in this NFC South showdown.  It doesn’t matter who is under center for this game.  Cam is wobbly with a concussion, but Derek Anderson came in last game, played a little over 9 minutes, and threw for 172 yards and 2 TDs, one of which was to Mr. Olsen, and followed it up by catching the 2 point conversion on the next play.   This guy is as reliable as it gets at the TE position, as he has 24 catches for 335 yards and 2 scores this season.  He’s pricey, but he’s worth it.  And if Cam is out, a Mr. Anderson/Mr. Olsen stack is one to be had, especially with Anderson coming in at $5500.

There is Week 5 for you.  Keep the comments and feedback coming on the Twitter twitter-logo-transparent-small@phillyjoel or the old school email JMburntcoverage@gmail.com

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